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Amora vs Lagos — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H 2020

Amora
Amora
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lagos
Lagos
3/3/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group HCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H · Group H - 12Parque do Serrado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Amora50%
×Draw27%
Lagos23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amora
1.45
Lagos
0.90

Amora creates 61% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Amora
1.60
Lagos
1.20

allows per match

Amora
0.60
Lagos
1.30

finishing

Amora+0.00on par
Lagos+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amora ↓

Lagos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Amora or draw
77%
Amora or Lagos
73%
Draw or Lagos
50%

Winning margin

Amora wins by 2+
25%
Lagos wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Amora 1+ goals
77%
Amora 2+ goals
42%
Amora 3+ goals
18%
Lagos 1+ goals
59%
Lagos 2+ goals
23%
Lagos 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Amora (draw refunded)
68%
Lagos (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amora at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Lagos away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amora attack 1.60 + Lagos defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.45

Lagos attack 1.20 + Amora defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Amora scores more
50%
level
27%
Lagos scores more
23%

Amora at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Amora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Amora 1 – 0 Lagos

Amora beat Lagos 1-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H on March 3, 2021.

The match was played at Parque do Serrado in Amora.