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Amora vs Cova De Piedade — Liga 3 2021

Amora
Amora
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Cova De Piedade
Cova De Piedade
4/9/2022Liga 3Liga 3 · Relegation Round - 3Complexo Municipal de Atletismo Carla Sacramento

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Amora44%
×Draw26%
Cova De Piedade30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amora
1.44
Cova De Piedade
1.13

Amora creates 27% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 14 away

creates per match

Amora
1.45
Cova De Piedade
1.00

allows per match

Amora
1.25
Cova De Piedade
1.43

finishing

Amora+0.00on par
Cova De Piedade+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amora ↓

Cova De Piedade →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Amora or draw
70%
Amora or Cova De Piedade
74%
Draw or Cova De Piedade
56%

Winning margin

Amora wins by 2+
21%
Cova De Piedade wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Amora 1+ goals
76%
Amora 2+ goals
42%
Amora 3+ goals
18%
Cova De Piedade 1+ goals
68%
Cova De Piedade 2+ goals
31%
Cova De Piedade 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Amora (draw refunded)
60%
Cova De Piedade (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amora at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.25 · 56 matches

Cova De Piedade away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amora attack 1.45 + Cova De Piedade defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.44

Cova De Piedade attack 1.00 + Amora defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Amora scores more
44%
level
26%
Cova De Piedade scores more
30%

Amora at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Amora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Amora vs Cova De Piedade

Cova De Piedade beat Amora 2-1 in Liga 3 on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Complexo Municipal de Atletismo Carla Sacramento in Amora.