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Amora vs Belenenses — Taça de Portugal 2018

Amora
Amora
AET
3 – 3
Belenenses
Belenenses
10/20/2018Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio da Medideira (Amora)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Amora49%
×Draw21%
Belenenses30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amora
2.09
Belenenses
1.61

Amora creates 30% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Amora
2.78
Belenenses
1.90

allows per match

Amora
1.33
Belenenses
1.40

finishing

Amora+0.00on par
Belenenses+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amora ↓

Belenenses →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Amora or draw
70%
Amora or Belenenses
79%
Draw or Belenenses
51%

Winning margin

Amora wins by 2+
28%
Belenenses wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Amora 1+ goals
88%
Amora 2+ goals
62%
Amora 3+ goals
34%
Belenenses 1+ goals
80%
Belenenses 2+ goals
48%
Belenenses 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Amora (draw refunded)
62%
Belenenses (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amora at home — creates 2.78, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Belenenses away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amora attack 2.78 + Belenenses defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.09

Belenenses attack 1.90 + Amora defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Amora scores more
49%
level
21%
Belenenses scores more
30%

Amora at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Amora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Amora 3–3 Belenenses

Amora and Belenenses drew 3-3 in Taça de Portugal on October 20, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio da Medideira (Amora).