Amora 5–0 Aljustrelense: Result & Stats

Amora

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Aljustrelense

3/7/2021

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H · Group H - 19Estádio da Medideira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Amora73%

×Draw19%

Aljustrelense8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmoraExpected goals in this matchAljustrelense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.50

Amora

2.00

Aljustrelense

0.50

Amora creates 300% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.60

creates per match

0.40

0.60

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Amora

1.60

Aljustrelense

0.40

allows per match

Amora

0.60

Aljustrelense

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amora+0.00on par

Aljustrelense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amora ↓

Aljustrelense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Amora or draw

92%

Amora or Aljustrelense

81%

Draw or Aljustrelense

27%

Winning margin

Amora wins by 2+

47%

Aljustrelense wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Amora 1+ goals

86%

Amora 2+ goals

59%

Amora 3+ goals

32%

Aljustrelense 1+ goals

39%

Aljustrelense 2+ goals

9%

Aljustrelense 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Amora (draw refunded)

90%

Aljustrelense (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amora at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Aljustrelense away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amora attack 1.60 + Aljustrelense defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.00

Aljustrelense attack 0.40 + Amora defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Amora scores more

73%

level

19%

Aljustrelense scores more

8%

Amora at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Amora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff