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Ammerthal vs Fortuna Regensburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Ammerthal
Ammerthal
Preview
17:00
Fortuna Regensburg
Fortuna Regensburg
8/14/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 5
45%
Ammerthal
model favours
45%23%33%

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ammerthal45%
×Draw23%
Fortuna Regensburg33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ammerthal
1.79
Fortuna Regensburg
1.50

Ammerthal creates 19% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 51 away

creates per match

Ammerthal
1.72
Fortuna Regensburg
1.63

allows per match

Ammerthal
1.38
Fortuna Regensburg
1.86

finishing

Ammerthal+0.00on par
Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ammerthal ↓

Fortuna Regensburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Ammerthal or draw
67%
Ammerthal or Fortuna Regensburg
77%
Draw or Fortuna Regensburg
55%

Winning margin

Ammerthal wins by 2+
24%
Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ammerthal 1+ goals
83%
Ammerthal 2+ goals
53%
Ammerthal 3+ goals
26%
Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals
78%
Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals
44%
Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ammerthal (draw refunded)
58%
Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ammerthal at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.38 · 53 matches

Fortuna Regensburg away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.86 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ammerthal attack 1.72 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.79

Fortuna Regensburg attack 1.63 + Ammerthal defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ammerthal scores more
45%
level
23%
Fortuna Regensburg scores more
33%

Ammerthal at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ammerthal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ammerthal
WLLLW
Regensburg
WDWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ammerthal host Fortuna Regensburg

August 14, 2026: Ammerthal take on Fortuna Regensburg in Oberliga - Bayern Nord. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.