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Ammerthal vs Eltersdorf — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Ammerthal
Ammerthal
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Eltersdorf
Eltersdorf
C. Heinloth 26'
M. Gobhardt 87'
M. Fischer 41'
5/3/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 36Sportplatz Ammerthal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Ammerthal34%
×Draw24%
Eltersdorf41%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ammerthal
1.42
Eltersdorf
1.58

Eltersdorf creates 11% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 68 away

creates per match

Ammerthal
1.72
Eltersdorf
1.78

allows per match

Ammerthal
1.38
Eltersdorf
1.13

finishing

Ammerthal+0.00on par
Eltersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ammerthal ↓

Eltersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ammerthal or draw
59%
Ammerthal or Eltersdorf
76%
Draw or Eltersdorf
66%

Winning margin

Ammerthal wins by 2+
16%
Eltersdorf wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Ammerthal 1+ goals
76%
Ammerthal 2+ goals
41%
Ammerthal 3+ goals
17%
Eltersdorf 1+ goals
79%
Eltersdorf 2+ goals
47%
Eltersdorf 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Ammerthal (draw refunded)
45%
Eltersdorf (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ammerthal at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.38 · 53 matches

Eltersdorf away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.13 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ammerthal attack 1.72 + Eltersdorf defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.42

Eltersdorf attack 1.78 + Ammerthal defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ammerthal scores more
34%
level
24%
Eltersdorf scores more
41%

Eltersdorf at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Eltersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
C. Heinloth
41'
M. Fischer
87'
M. Gobhardt

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ammerthal vs Eltersdorf

Eltersdorf beat Ammerthal 2-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on May 3, 2024.

Goals: C. Heinloth (26'), M. Fischer (41'), M. Gobhardt (87').

The match was played at Sportplatz Ammerthal in Ammerthal.