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Ammerthal vs Bayern Hof — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Ammerthal
Ammerthal
Preview
17:00
Bayern Hof
Bayern Hof
7/31/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 3
Big match
43%
Ammerthal
model favours
43%24%33%

Their last 6 meetings averaged 4 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Ammerthal43%
×Draw24%
Bayern Hof33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ammerthal
1.67
Bayern Hof
1.44

Ammerthal creates 16% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 68 away

creates per match

Ammerthal
1.72
Bayern Hof
1.51

allows per match

Ammerthal
1.38
Bayern Hof
1.62

finishing

Ammerthal+0.00on par
Bayern Hof+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ammerthal ↓

Bayern Hof →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ammerthal or draw
67%
Ammerthal or Bayern Hof
76%
Draw or Bayern Hof
57%

Winning margin

Ammerthal wins by 2+
22%
Bayern Hof wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ammerthal 1+ goals
81%
Ammerthal 2+ goals
50%
Ammerthal 3+ goals
23%
Bayern Hof 1+ goals
76%
Bayern Hof 2+ goals
42%
Bayern Hof 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Ammerthal (draw refunded)
56%
Bayern Hof (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ammerthal at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.38 · 53 matches

Bayern Hof away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.62 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ammerthal attack 1.72 + Bayern Hof defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.67

Bayern Hof attack 1.51 + Ammerthal defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ammerthal scores more
43%
level
24%
Bayern Hof scores more
33%

Ammerthal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ammerthal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Ammerthal
WLLLW
Hof
DDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ammerthal host Bayern Hof

July 31, 2026: Ammerthal take on Bayern Hof in Oberliga - Bayern Nord. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.