Ammerthal 1–1 Bayern Hof: Result & Stats

Ammerthal

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bayern Hof

D. Gommel 22'

N. Schmidt 86'

11/10/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 20Sportplatz Ammerthal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Ammerthal43%

×Draw24%

Bayern Hof33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmmerthalExpected goals in this matchBayern Hof

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.44

Ammerthal

1.68

Bayern Hof

1.44

Ammerthal creates 17% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 69 away

1.72

creates per match

1.49

1.38

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Ammerthal

1.72

Bayern Hof

1.49

allows per match

Ammerthal

1.38

Bayern Hof

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ammerthal+0.00on par

Bayern Hof+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ammerthal ↓

Bayern Hof →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Ammerthal or draw

67%

Ammerthal or Bayern Hof

76%

Draw or Bayern Hof

57%

Winning margin

Ammerthal wins by 2+

22%

Bayern Hof wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ammerthal 1+ goals

81%

Ammerthal 2+ goals

50%

Ammerthal 3+ goals

24%

Bayern Hof 1+ goals

76%

Bayern Hof 2+ goals

42%

Bayern Hof 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Ammerthal (draw refunded)

57%

Bayern Hof (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ammerthal at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.38 · 53 matches

Bayern Hof away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.64 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ammerthal attack 1.72 + Bayern Hof defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.68

Bayern Hof attack 1.49 + Ammerthal defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ammerthal scores more

43%

level

24%

Bayern Hof scores more

33%

Ammerthal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ammerthal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

D. Gommel

86'

N. Schmidt

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff