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Ammerthal vs Abtswind — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Ammerthal
Ammerthal
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Abtswind
Abtswind
4/29/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 30Sportplatz Ammerthal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Ammerthal38%
×Draw24%
Abtswind38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ammerthal
1.50
Abtswind
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 52 away

creates per match

Ammerthal
1.72
Abtswind
1.62

allows per match

Ammerthal
1.38
Abtswind
1.27

finishing

Ammerthal+0.00on par
Abtswind+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ammerthal ↓

Abtswind →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ammerthal or draw
62%
Ammerthal or Abtswind
76%
Draw or Abtswind
62%

Winning margin

Ammerthal wins by 2+
18%
Abtswind wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ammerthal 1+ goals
78%
Ammerthal 2+ goals
44%
Ammerthal 3+ goals
19%
Abtswind 1+ goals
78%
Abtswind 2+ goals
44%
Abtswind 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ammerthal (draw refunded)
50%
Abtswind (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ammerthal at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.38 · 53 matches

Abtswind away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.27 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ammerthal attack 1.72 + Abtswind defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.50

Abtswind attack 1.62 + Ammerthal defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ammerthal scores more
38%
level
24%
Abtswind scores more
38%

Ammerthal at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ammerthal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ammerthal vs Abtswind

Ammerthal and Abtswind drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Ammerthal in Ammerthal.