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Amkar vs Zvezda Perm — Second League - Group 4 2020

Amkar
Amkar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zvezda Perm
Zvezda Perm
11/14/2021Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 20Manezh Perm Velikaya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Amkar48%
×Draw26%
Zvezda Perm26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amkar
1.54
Zvezda Perm
1.07

Amkar creates 44% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 28 away

creates per match

Amkar
1.83
Zvezda Perm
1.46

allows per match

Amkar
0.68
Zvezda Perm
1.25

finishing

Amkar+0.00on par
Zvezda Perm+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amkar ↓

Zvezda Perm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Amkar or draw
74%
Amkar or Zvezda Perm
74%
Draw or Zvezda Perm
52%

Winning margin

Amkar wins by 2+
24%
Zvezda Perm wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Amkar 1+ goals
79%
Amkar 2+ goals
45%
Amkar 3+ goals
20%
Zvezda Perm 1+ goals
66%
Zvezda Perm 2+ goals
29%
Zvezda Perm 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Amkar (draw refunded)
65%
Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amkar at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.68 · 53 matches

Zvezda Perm away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amkar attack 1.83 + Zvezda Perm defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.54

Zvezda Perm attack 1.46 + Amkar defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Amkar scores more
48%
level
26%
Zvezda Perm scores more
26%

Amkar at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Amkar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Amkar vs Zvezda Perm

Amkar beat Zvezda Perm 1-0 in Second League - Group 4 on November 14, 2021.

The match was played at Manezh Perm Velikaya in Perm.