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Amkar vs Urozhay — Cup 2019

Amkar
Amkar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Urozhay
Urozhay
9/27/2023CupCup · Regions Path - 4th RoundStadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Amkar50%
×Draw26%
Urozhay25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amkar
1.54
Urozhay
1.00

Amkar creates 54% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Amkar
1.29
Urozhay
1.00

allows per match

Amkar
1.00
Urozhay
1.80

finishing

Amkar+0.00on par
Urozhay+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amkar ↓

Urozhay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Amkar or draw
75%
Amkar or Urozhay
74%
Draw or Urozhay
50%

Winning margin

Amkar wins by 2+
26%
Urozhay wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Amkar 1+ goals
79%
Amkar 2+ goals
45%
Amkar 3+ goals
20%
Urozhay 1+ goals
63%
Urozhay 2+ goals
26%
Urozhay 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Amkar (draw refunded)
67%
Urozhay (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amkar at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Urozhay away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amkar attack 1.29 + Urozhay defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.54

Urozhay attack 1.00 + Amkar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Amkar scores more
50%
level
26%
Urozhay scores more
25%

Amkar at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Amkar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Amkar vs Urozhay

Amkar and Urozhay drew 1-1 in Cup on September 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Zvezda in Perm'.