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Amkar vs Tyumen — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Amkar
Amkar
Preview
15:00
Tyumen
Tyumen
9/12/2026Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Division A Silver - 9Zvezda Stadium
Big match
52%
Amkar
model favours
52%26%22%

Tyumen score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Amkar52%
×Draw26%
Tyumen22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amkar
1.50
Tyumen
0.86

Amkar creates 74% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

creates per match

Amkar
1.44
Tyumen
0.78

allows per match

Amkar
0.94
Tyumen
1.56

finishing

Amkar+0.00on par
Tyumen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amkar ↓

Tyumen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Amkar or draw
78%
Amkar or Tyumen
74%
Draw or Tyumen
48%

Winning margin

Amkar wins by 2+
27%
Tyumen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Amkar 1+ goals
78%
Amkar 2+ goals
44%
Amkar 3+ goals
19%
Tyumen 1+ goals
58%
Tyumen 2+ goals
21%
Tyumen 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Amkar (draw refunded)
71%
Tyumen (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amkar at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Tyumen away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amkar attack 1.44 + Tyumen defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50

Tyumen attack 0.78 + Amkar defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Amkar scores more
52%
level
26%
Tyumen scores more
22%

Amkar at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Amkar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Amkar score first in only 23% of matches
  • 69% of Amkar’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Amkar
LDDDW
Tyumen
DLLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Amkar host Tyumen

September 12, 2026: Amkar take on Tyumen in Second League A - Fall Season Silver. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Amkar host Tyumen at Zvezda Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.