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Amkar vs Tyumen — Second League - Group 4 2020

Amkar
Amkar
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tyumen
Tyumen
5/21/2023Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2nd Phase - 3Stadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Amkar34%
×Draw25%
Tyumen41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amkar
1.33
Tyumen
1.49

Tyumen creates 12% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 41 away

creates per match

Amkar
1.83
Tyumen
2.29

allows per match

Amkar
0.68
Tyumen
0.83

finishing

Amkar+0.00on par
Tyumen+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amkar ↓

Tyumen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Amkar or draw
59%
Amkar or Tyumen
75%
Draw or Tyumen
66%

Winning margin

Amkar wins by 2+
15%
Tyumen wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Amkar 1+ goals
74%
Amkar 2+ goals
38%
Amkar 3+ goals
15%
Tyumen 1+ goals
77%
Tyumen 2+ goals
44%
Tyumen 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Amkar (draw refunded)
45%
Tyumen (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amkar at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.68 · 53 matches

Tyumen away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.83 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amkar attack 1.83 + Tyumen defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.33

Tyumen attack 2.29 + Amkar defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Amkar scores more
34%
level
25%
Tyumen scores more
41%

Tyumen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tyumen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Amkar vs Tyumen

Tyumen beat Amkar 2-0 in Second League - Group 4 on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Zvezda in Perm'.