Amkar 4–1 Spartak Tuymazy: Result & Stats

Amkar

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Spartak Tuymazy

11/9/2021

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 19Manezh Perm Velikaya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Amkar65%

×Draw19%

Spartak Tuymazy16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmkarExpected goals in this matchSpartak Tuymazy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.02

Amkar

2.27

Spartak Tuymazy

1.02

Amkar creates 123% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 14 away

1.83

creates per match

1.36

0.68

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Amkar

1.83

Spartak Tuymazy

1.36

allows per match

Amkar

0.68

Spartak Tuymazy

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amkar+0.00on par

Spartak Tuymazy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amkar ↓

Spartak Tuymazy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Amkar or draw

84%

Amkar or Spartak Tuymazy

81%

Draw or Spartak Tuymazy

35%

Winning margin

Amkar wins by 2+

42%

Spartak Tuymazy wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Amkar 1+ goals

90%

Amkar 2+ goals

66%

Amkar 3+ goals

39%

Spartak Tuymazy 1+ goals

64%

Spartak Tuymazy 2+ goals

27%

Spartak Tuymazy 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Amkar (draw refunded)

80%

Spartak Tuymazy (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amkar at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.68 · 53 matches

Spartak Tuymazy away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amkar attack 1.83 + Spartak Tuymazy defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.27

Spartak Tuymazy attack 1.36 + Amkar defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Amkar scores more

65%

level

19%

Spartak Tuymazy scores more

16%

Amkar at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Amkar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff