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Amkar vs Nizhny Novgorod II — Second League - Group 4 2020

Amkar
Amkar
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nizhny Novgorod II
Nizhny Novgorod II
8/17/2024Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 17Stadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Amkar75%
×Draw17%
Nizhny Novgorod II8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amkar
2.23
Nizhny Novgorod II
0.57

Amkar creates 291% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 13 away

creates per match

Amkar
1.83
Nizhny Novgorod II
0.46

allows per match

Amkar
0.68
Nizhny Novgorod II
2.62

finishing

Amkar+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amkar ↓

Nizhny Novgorod II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Amkar or draw
92%
Amkar or Nizhny Novgorod II
83%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod II
25%

Winning margin

Amkar wins by 2+
51%
Nizhny Novgorod II wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Amkar 1+ goals
89%
Amkar 2+ goals
65%
Amkar 3+ goals
38%
Nizhny Novgorod II 1+ goals
43%
Nizhny Novgorod II 2+ goals
11%
Nizhny Novgorod II 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Amkar (draw refunded)
90%
Nizhny Novgorod II (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amkar at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.68 · 53 matches

Nizhny Novgorod II away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amkar attack 1.83 + Nizhny Novgorod II defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.23

Nizhny Novgorod II attack 0.46 + Amkar defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Amkar scores more
75%
level
17%
Nizhny Novgorod II scores more
8%

Amkar at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Amkar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Amkar vs Nizhny Novgorod II

Amkar beat Nizhny Novgorod II 2-0 in Second League - Group 4 on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Zvezda in Perm'.