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Amkar vs Khimik Vurnary — Second League - Group 4 2020

Amkar
Amkar
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Khimik Vurnary
Khimik Vurnary
7/30/2022Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2Stadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Amkar52%
×Draw25%
Khimik Vurnary23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amkar
1.60
Khimik Vurnary
0.96

Amkar creates 67% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 22 away

creates per match

Amkar
1.83
Khimik Vurnary
1.23

allows per match

Amkar
0.68
Khimik Vurnary
1.36

finishing

Amkar+0.00on par
Khimik Vurnary+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amkar ↓

Khimik Vurnary →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Amkar or draw
77%
Amkar or Khimik Vurnary
75%
Draw or Khimik Vurnary
48%

Winning margin

Amkar wins by 2+
28%
Khimik Vurnary wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Amkar 1+ goals
80%
Amkar 2+ goals
47%
Amkar 3+ goals
22%
Khimik Vurnary 1+ goals
62%
Khimik Vurnary 2+ goals
25%
Khimik Vurnary 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Amkar (draw refunded)
70%
Khimik Vurnary (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amkar at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.68 · 53 matches

Khimik Vurnary away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amkar attack 1.83 + Khimik Vurnary defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.60

Khimik Vurnary attack 1.23 + Amkar defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Amkar scores more
52%
level
25%
Khimik Vurnary scores more
23%

Amkar at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Amkar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Amkar vs Khimik Vurnary

Amkar beat Khimik Vurnary 3-0 in Second League - Group 4 on July 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Zvezda in Perm'.