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Amkar vs Forte Taganrog — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Amkar
Amkar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Forte Taganrog
Forte Taganrog
8/12/2023Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 5Stadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Amkar55%
×Draw24%
Forte Taganrog21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amkar
1.72
Forte Taganrog
0.97

Amkar creates 77% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

creates per match

Amkar
1.44
Forte Taganrog
1.00

allows per match

Amkar
0.94
Forte Taganrog
2.00

finishing

Amkar+0.00on par
Forte Taganrog+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amkar ↓

Forte Taganrog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Amkar or draw
79%
Amkar or Forte Taganrog
76%
Draw or Forte Taganrog
45%

Winning margin

Amkar wins by 2+
30%
Forte Taganrog wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Amkar 1+ goals
82%
Amkar 2+ goals
51%
Amkar 3+ goals
25%
Forte Taganrog 1+ goals
62%
Forte Taganrog 2+ goals
25%
Forte Taganrog 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Amkar (draw refunded)
72%
Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amkar at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Forte Taganrog away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amkar attack 1.44 + Forte Taganrog defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Forte Taganrog attack 1.00 + Amkar defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Amkar scores more
55%
level
24%
Forte Taganrog scores more
21%

Amkar at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Amkar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Silver: Amkar 1–1 Forte Taganrog

Amkar and Forte Taganrog drew 1-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Zvezda in Perm'.