Amkar 1–1 Dinamo Bryansk: Result & Stats

Amkar

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Bryansk

3/21/2026

Second League A - Fall Season Silver · Spring Season Silver - 4Zvezda Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Amkar46%

×Draw27%

Dinamo Bryansk27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmkarExpected goals in this matchDinamo Bryansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.02

Amkar

1.42

Dinamo Bryansk

1.02

Amkar creates 39% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

1.44

creates per match

1.11

0.94

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Amkar

1.44

Dinamo Bryansk

1.11

allows per match

Amkar

0.94

Dinamo Bryansk

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amkar+0.00on par

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amkar ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Amkar or draw

73%

Amkar or Dinamo Bryansk

73%

Draw or Dinamo Bryansk

54%

Winning margin

Amkar wins by 2+

22%

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Amkar 1+ goals

76%

Amkar 2+ goals

41%

Amkar 3+ goals

17%

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals

64%

Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals

27%

Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Amkar (draw refunded)

63%

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amkar at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amkar attack 1.44 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.42

Dinamo Bryansk attack 1.11 + Amkar defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Amkar scores more

46%

level

27%

Dinamo Bryansk scores more

27%

Amkar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Amkar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff