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Amkal vs Zvezda St. Petersburg — Cup 2019

Amkal
Amkal
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Zvezda St. Petersburg
Zvezda St. Petersburg
9/14/2022CupCup · Regions Path - 3rd RoundStadion SDYuShOR Smena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Amkal56%
×Draw19%
Zvezda St. Petersburg25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amkal
2.42
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.59

Amkal creates 52% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Amkal
2.71
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.75

allows per match

Amkal
1.43
Zvezda St. Petersburg
2.13

finishing

Amkal+0.00on par
Zvezda St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amkal ↓

Zvezda St. Petersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Amkal or draw
75%
Amkal or Zvezda St. Petersburg
81%
Draw or Zvezda St. Petersburg
44%

Winning margin

Amkal wins by 2+
35%
Zvezda St. Petersburg wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Amkal 1+ goals
91%
Amkal 2+ goals
69%
Amkal 3+ goals
43%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 1+ goals
80%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 2+ goals
47%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Amkal (draw refunded)
69%
Zvezda St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amkal at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Zvezda St. Petersburg away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amkal attack 2.71 + Zvezda St. Petersburg defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.42

Zvezda St. Petersburg attack 1.75 + Amkal defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Amkal scores more
56%
level
19%
Zvezda St. Petersburg scores more
25%

Amkal at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Amkal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Amkal vs Zvezda St. Petersburg

Amkal and Zvezda St. Petersburg drew 2-2 in Cup on September 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion SDYuShOR Smena in St. Petersburg.