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Amkal vs Znamya Noginsk — Cup 2019

Amkal
Amkal
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Znamya Noginsk
Znamya Noginsk
8/1/2023CupCup · Regions Path - 1st RoundFutbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Amkal44%
×Draw22%
Znamya Noginsk34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amkal
1.85
Znamya Noginsk
1.61

Amkal creates 15% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Amkal
2.71
Znamya Noginsk
1.80

allows per match

Amkal
1.43
Znamya Noginsk
1.00

finishing

Amkal+0.00on par
Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amkal ↓

Znamya Noginsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Amkal or draw
66%
Amkal or Znamya Noginsk
78%
Draw or Znamya Noginsk
56%

Winning margin

Amkal wins by 2+
24%
Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Amkal 1+ goals
84%
Amkal 2+ goals
55%
Amkal 3+ goals
28%
Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals
80%
Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals
48%
Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Amkal (draw refunded)
56%
Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amkal at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Znamya Noginsk away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amkal attack 2.71 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.80 + Amkal defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Amkal scores more
44%
level
22%
Znamya Noginsk scores more
34%

Amkal at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Amkal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Amkal vs Znamya Noginsk

Amkal beat Znamya Noginsk 3-2 in Cup on August 1, 2023.

The match was played at Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova in Moskva.