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Amkal vs Kolomna — Cup 2019

Amkal
Amkal
FT
8 – 1
HT: 5 – 0
Kolomna
Kolomna
8/1/2024CupCup · Regions Path - 1st RoundFutbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Amkal75%
×Draw14%
Kolomna11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amkal
2.94
Kolomna
1.05

Amkal creates 180% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Amkal
2.71
Kolomna
0.67

allows per match

Amkal
1.43
Kolomna
3.17

finishing

Amkal+0.00on par
Kolomna+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amkal ↓

Kolomna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Amkal or draw
89%
Amkal or Kolomna
86%
Draw or Kolomna
25%

Winning margin

Amkal wins by 2+
55%
Kolomna wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Amkal 1+ goals
95%
Amkal 2+ goals
79%
Amkal 3+ goals
55%
Kolomna 1+ goals
65%
Kolomna 2+ goals
28%
Kolomna 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Amkal (draw refunded)
87%
Kolomna (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amkal at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Kolomna away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amkal attack 2.71 + Kolomna defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.94

Kolomna attack 0.67 + Amkal defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Amkal scores more
75%
level
14%
Kolomna scores more
11%

Amkal at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Amkal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Amkal 8–1 Kolomna

Amkal beat Kolomna 8-1 in Cup on August 1, 2024.

The match was played at Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova in Moskva.