Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Amiens vs Valenciennes — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Amiens
Amiens
CANC
12:00
Valenciennes
Valenciennes
7/13/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Amiens16%
×Draw21%
Valenciennes63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amiens
0.90
Valenciennes
2.00

Valenciennes creates 122% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Amiens
0.80
Valenciennes
2.00

allows per match

Amiens
2.00
Valenciennes
1.00

finishing

Amiens+0.00on par
Valenciennes+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amiens ↓

Valenciennes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–211%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Amiens or draw
37%
Amiens or Valenciennes
79%
Draw or Valenciennes
84%

Winning margin

Amiens wins by 2+
5%
Valenciennes wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Amiens 1+ goals
59%
Amiens 2+ goals
23%
Amiens 3+ goals
6%
Valenciennes 1+ goals
86%
Valenciennes 2+ goals
59%
Valenciennes 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Amiens (draw refunded)
21%
Valenciennes (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amiens at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Valenciennes away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amiens attack 0.80 + Valenciennes defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Valenciennes attack 2.00 + Amiens defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Amiens scores more
16%
level
21%
Valenciennes scores more
63%

Valenciennes at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Valenciennes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Amiens face Valenciennes (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Amiens hosting Valenciennes. Match starts July 13, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Amiens host Valenciennes at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.