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Amiens vs Saint Etienne — Ligue 2 2018

Amiens
Amiens
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Saint Etienne
Saint Etienne
12/2/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 16Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Amiens35%
×Draw28%
Saint Etienne37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amiens
1.16
Saint Etienne
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 55 away

creates per match

Amiens
1.09
Saint Etienne
1.33

allows per match

Amiens
1.06
Saint Etienne
1.22

finishing

Amiens+0.00on par
Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amiens ↓

Saint Etienne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Amiens or draw
63%
Amiens or Saint Etienne
72%
Draw or Saint Etienne
65%

Winning margin

Amiens wins by 2+
14%
Saint Etienne wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Amiens 1+ goals
69%
Amiens 2+ goals
32%
Amiens 3+ goals
11%
Saint Etienne 1+ goals
70%
Saint Etienne 2+ goals
34%
Saint Etienne 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Amiens (draw refunded)
49%
Saint Etienne (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amiens at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.06 · 111 matches

Saint Etienne away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amiens attack 1.09 + Saint Etienne defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.16

Saint Etienne attack 1.33 + Amiens defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Amiens scores more
35%
level
28%
Saint Etienne scores more
37%

Saint Etienne at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Saint Etienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Amiens 1–0 Saint Etienne

Amiens beat Saint Etienne 1-0 in Ligue 2 on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne in Amiens.