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Amiens vs Montpellier — Ligue 1 2018

Amiens
Amiens
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Montpellier
Montpellier
1/11/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 20Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Amiens37%
×Draw26%
Montpellier37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amiens
1.33
Montpellier
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 91 away

creates per match

Amiens
1.12
Montpellier
1.30

allows per match

Amiens
1.36
Montpellier
1.55

finishing

Amiens+0.00on par
Montpellier+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amiens ↓

Montpellier →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Amiens or draw
63%
Amiens or Montpellier
74%
Draw or Montpellier
63%

Winning margin

Amiens wins by 2+
17%
Montpellier wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Amiens 1+ goals
74%
Amiens 2+ goals
38%
Amiens 3+ goals
15%
Montpellier 1+ goals
74%
Montpellier 2+ goals
38%
Montpellier 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Amiens (draw refunded)
50%
Montpellier (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amiens at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.36 · 33 matches

Montpellier away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.55 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amiens attack 1.12 + Montpellier defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.33

Montpellier attack 1.30 + Amiens defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Amiens scores more
37%
level
26%
Montpellier scores more
37%

Amiens at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Amiens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Amiens 1–2 Montpellier

Montpellier beat Amiens 2-1 in Ligue 1 on January 11, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne in Amiens.