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Americano Bacabal vs Expressinho — Maranhense - 2 2026

Americano Bacabal
Americano Bacabal
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Expressinho
Expressinho
9/18/2024Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · Preliminary Round - 2Estádio Municipal Nhozinho Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Americano Bacabal65%
×Draw24%
Expressinho11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Americano Bacabal
1.65
Expressinho
0.52

Americano Bacabal creates 217% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Americano Bacabal
1.29
Expressinho
0.33

allows per match

Americano Bacabal
0.71
Expressinho
2.00

finishing

Americano Bacabal+0.00on par
Expressinho+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 63Over: 3763%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 67Yes: 3367%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Americano Bacabal ↓

Expressinho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Americano Bacabal or draw
89%
Americano Bacabal or Expressinho
76%
Draw or Expressinho
35%

Winning margin

Americano Bacabal wins by 2+
37%
Expressinho wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Americano Bacabal 1+ goals
81%
Americano Bacabal 2+ goals
49%
Americano Bacabal 3+ goals
23%
Expressinho 1+ goals
41%
Expressinho 2+ goals
10%
Expressinho 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Americano Bacabal (draw refunded)
85%
Expressinho (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Americano Bacabal at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Expressinho away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Americano Bacabal attack 1.29 + Expressinho defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Expressinho attack 0.33 + Americano Bacabal defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Americano Bacabal scores more
65%
level
24%
Expressinho scores more
11%

Americano Bacabal at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Americano Bacabal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Americano Bacabal vs Expressinho

Americano Bacabal beat Expressinho 1-0 in Maranhense - 2 on September 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Nhozinho Santos in São Luís, Maranhão.