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América W vs León W — League #673 2026

América W
América W
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
León W
León W
1/25/2025League #673League #673 · Clausura - 5Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

América W77%
×Draw13%
León W10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

América W
3.29
León W
1.17

América W creates 181% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

América W
3.25
León W
1.33

allows per match

América W
1.00
León W
3.33

finishing

América W+0.00on par
León W+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

América W ↓

León W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

América W or draw
90%
América W or León W
87%
Draw or León W
23%

Winning margin

América W wins by 2+
58%
León W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

América W 1+ goals
96%
América W 2+ goals
83%
América W 3+ goals
62%
León W 1+ goals
69%
León W 2+ goals
33%
León W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

América W (draw refunded)
88%
León W (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

América W at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

León W away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

América W attack 3.25 + León W defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.29

León W attack 1.33 + América W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

América W scores more
77%
level
13%
León W scores more
10%

América W at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "América W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: América W vs León W

América W beat León W 5-0 in League #673 on January 25, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes in D.F..