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America SP vs José Bonifácio — Paulista Série B 2026

America SP
America SP
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
José Bonifácio
José Bonifácio
7/11/2026Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

America SP35%
×Draw31%
José Bonifácio35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America SP
1.00
José Bonifácio
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

America SP
1.57
José Bonifácio
1.71

allows per match

America SP
0.29
José Bonifácio
0.43

finishing

America SP+0.00on par
José Bonifácio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 68Over: 3268%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 60Yes: 4060%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America SP ↓

José Bonifácio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

America SP or draw
65%
America SP or José Bonifácio
69%
Draw or José Bonifácio
65%

Winning margin

America SP wins by 2+
13%
José Bonifácio wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

America SP 1+ goals
63%
America SP 2+ goals
26%
America SP 3+ goals
8%
José Bonifácio 1+ goals
63%
José Bonifácio 2+ goals
26%
José Bonifácio 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

America SP (draw refunded)
50%
José Bonifácio (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America SP at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

José Bonifácio away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America SP attack 1.57 + José Bonifácio defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 1.00

José Bonifácio attack 1.71 + America SP defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

America SP scores more
35%
level
31%
José Bonifácio scores more
35%

America SP at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "America SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: America SP 0–0 José Bonifácio

America SP and José Bonifácio drew 0-0 in Paulista Série B on July 11, 2026.