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America SP vs Assisense — Paulista Série B 2026

America SP
America SP
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Assisense
Assisense
Gabriel Lira 45'
4/18/2026Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

America SP57%
×Draw28%
Assisense14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America SP
1.36
Assisense
0.53

America SP creates 157% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

America SP
1.57
Assisense
0.77

allows per match

America SP
0.29
Assisense
1.15

finishing

America SP+0.00on par
Assisense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 71Over: 2971%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 69Yes: 3169%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America SP ↓

Assisense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

America SP or draw
86%
America SP or Assisense
72%
Draw or Assisense
43%

Winning margin

America SP wins by 2+
28%
Assisense wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

America SP 1+ goals
74%
America SP 2+ goals
39%
America SP 3+ goals
16%
Assisense 1+ goals
41%
Assisense 2+ goals
10%
Assisense 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

America SP (draw refunded)
80%
Assisense (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America SP at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

Assisense away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America SP attack 1.57 + Assisense defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.36

Assisense attack 0.77 + America SP defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

America SP scores more
57%
level
28%
Assisense scores more
14%

America SP at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "America SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
Gabriel Lira
68'
Aislan
70'
Lucas Silva

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: America SP vs Assisense

America SP beat Assisense 1-0 in Paulista Série B on April 18, 2026.

Goals: Gabriel Lira (45').