América-SP U20 0–1 Ponte Preta U20: Result & Stats

América-SP U20

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ponte Preta U20

Unknown 60'

6/25/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

América-SP U2023%

×Draw28%

Ponte Preta U2048%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

América-SP U20Expected goals in this matchPonte Preta U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.84

1.34

América-SP U20

0.84

Ponte Preta U20

1.34

Ponte Preta U20 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 20 away

0.33

creates per match

1.35

1.33

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

América-SP U20

0.33

Ponte Preta U20

1.35

allows per match

América-SP U20

1.33

Ponte Preta U20

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

América-SP U20+0.00on par

Ponte Preta U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

América-SP U20 ↓

Ponte Preta U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–115%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

América-SP U20 or draw

52%

América-SP U20 or Ponte Preta U20

72%

Draw or Ponte Preta U20

77%

Winning margin

América-SP U20 wins by 2+

8%

Ponte Preta U20 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

América-SP U20 1+ goals

57%

América-SP U20 2+ goals

21%

América-SP U20 3+ goals

5%

Ponte Preta U20 1+ goals

74%

Ponte Preta U20 2+ goals

39%

Ponte Preta U20 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

América-SP U20 (draw refunded)

33%

Ponte Preta U20 (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

América-SP U20 at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Ponte Preta U20 away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

América-SP U20 attack 0.33 + Ponte Preta U20 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 0.84

Ponte Preta U20 attack 1.35 + América-SP U20 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

América-SP U20 scores more

23%

level

28%

Ponte Preta U20 scores more

48%

Ponte Preta U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ponte Preta U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'

90+6'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff