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América-SP U20 vs Juventus U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

América-SP U20
América-SP U20
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Juventus U20
Juventus U20
Henrique Miranda 69'
Ernane 33'
Vitinho 19'
6/4/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

América-SP U2023%
×Draw29%
Juventus U2048%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

América-SP U20
0.76
Juventus U20
1.25

Juventus U20 creates 64% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 17 away

creates per match

América-SP U20
0.33
Juventus U20
1.18

allows per match

América-SP U20
1.33
Juventus U20
1.18

finishing

América-SP U20+0.00on par
Juventus U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 67Over: 3367%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 62Yes: 3862%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

América-SP U20 ↓

Juventus U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–117%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

América-SP U20 or draw
52%
América-SP U20 or Juventus U20
71%
Draw or Juventus U20
77%

Winning margin

América-SP U20 wins by 2+
7%
Juventus U20 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

América-SP U20 1+ goals
53%
América-SP U20 2+ goals
18%
América-SP U20 3+ goals
4%
Juventus U20 1+ goals
71%
Juventus U20 2+ goals
36%
Juventus U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

América-SP U20 (draw refunded)
32%
Juventus U20 (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

América-SP U20 at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Juventus U20 away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

América-SP U20 attack 0.33 + Juventus U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.76

Juventus U20 attack 1.18 + América-SP U20 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

América-SP U20 scores more
23%
level
29%
Juventus U20 scores more
48%

Juventus U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Juventus U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
Vitinho
33'
Ernane
69'
Henrique Miranda

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: América-SP U20 vs Juventus U20

Juventus U20 beat América-SP U20 3-0 in Paulista - U20 on June 4, 2026.

Goals: Vitinho (19'), Ernane (33'), Henrique Miranda (69').