América-SP U20 1–0 Jabaquara U20: Result & Stats

América-SP U20

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jabaquara U20

Unknown 8'

7/9/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

América-SP U2043%

×Draw28%

Jabaquara U2029%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

América-SP U20Expected goals in this matchJabaquara U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.02

América-SP U20

1.29

Jabaquara U20

1.02

América-SP U20 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 17 away

0.33

creates per match

0.71

1.33

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

América-SP U20

0.33

Jabaquara U20

0.71

allows per match

América-SP U20

1.33

Jabaquara U20

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

América-SP U20+0.00on par

Jabaquara U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

América-SP U20 ↓

Jabaquara U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

América-SP U20 or draw

71%

América-SP U20 or Jabaquara U20

72%

Draw or Jabaquara U20

57%

Winning margin

América-SP U20 wins by 2+

19%

Jabaquara U20 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

América-SP U20 1+ goals

72%

América-SP U20 2+ goals

37%

América-SP U20 3+ goals

14%

Jabaquara U20 1+ goals

64%

Jabaquara U20 2+ goals

27%

Jabaquara U20 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

América-SP U20 (draw refunded)

59%

Jabaquara U20 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

América-SP U20 at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Jabaquara U20 away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

América-SP U20 attack 0.33 + Jabaquara U20 defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Jabaquara U20 attack 0.71 + América-SP U20 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

América-SP U20 scores more

43%

level

28%

Jabaquara U20 scores more

29%

América-SP U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "América-SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

90+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff