America-RN 3–0 Santa Cruz RN: Result & Stats

America-RN

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Santa Cruz RN

M. Ferreira 83'

Souza 45'

Salatiel 14'

5/18/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 5Arena das Dunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

America-RN68%

×Draw21%

Santa Cruz RN11%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America-RNExpected goals in this matchSanta Cruz RN

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.61

America-RN

1.89

Santa Cruz RN

0.61

America-RN creates 210% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

1.67

creates per match

0.89

0.33

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

America-RN

1.67

Santa Cruz RN

0.89

allows per match

America-RN

0.33

Santa Cruz RN

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America-RN+0.00on par

Santa Cruz RN+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America-RN ↓

Santa Cruz RN →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

America-RN or draw

89%

America-RN or Santa Cruz RN

79%

Draw or Santa Cruz RN

32%

Winning margin

America-RN wins by 2+

41%

Santa Cruz RN wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

America-RN 1+ goals

85%

America-RN 2+ goals

56%

America-RN 3+ goals

29%

Santa Cruz RN 1+ goals

46%

Santa Cruz RN 2+ goals

13%

Santa Cruz RN 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

America-RN (draw refunded)

86%

Santa Cruz RN (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America-RN at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 18 matches

Santa Cruz RN away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America-RN attack 1.67 + Santa Cruz RN defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.89

Santa Cruz RN attack 0.89 + America-RN defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

America-RN scores more

68%

level

21%

Santa Cruz RN scores more

11%

America-RN at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "America-RN will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Salatiel

45'

Souza

83'

M. Ferreira

America-RN

Santa

⚽

⚽

⚽

Manager: Moacir Júnior

America-RN substitutes

HerbertRomarinhoMarquinhosGivaMikaelLucãoVillaÍtaloMendesRodriguesSiqueiraLopes

Manager: Eugênio Gomes

Santa Cruz RN substitutes

BambuGustavinhoHitaloPeuCafuVictorLopesDuduFlorGladstoneGleydsonMoisés

Match Recap: America-RN vs Santa Cruz RN

America-RN beat Santa Cruz RN 3-0 in Serie D on May 18, 2025.

Goals: Salatiel (14'), Souza (45'), M. Ferreira (83').

The match was played at Arena das Dunas in Natal.

America-RN vs Santa Cruz RN — Serie D 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: America-RN vs Santa Cruz RN