America-RN 2–1 Imperatriz: Result & Stats | Serie D

America-RN

Pens

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Imperatriz

Danilo 45+5'

Lucas Oliveira 26'

Junior Chicão 29'

6/10/2018

Serie D · 16th FinalsArena das Dunas (Natal, Rio Grande do Norte)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

America-RN60%

×Draw25%

Imperatriz15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America-RNExpected goals in this matchImperatriz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.66

America-RN

1.60

Imperatriz

0.66

America-RN creates 142% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 26 away

1.94

creates per match

0.81

0.50

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

America-RN

1.94

Imperatriz

0.81

allows per match

America-RN

0.50

Imperatriz

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America-RN+0.00on par

Imperatriz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America-RN ↓

Imperatriz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

America-RN or draw

85%

America-RN or Imperatriz

75%

Draw or Imperatriz

40%

Winning margin

America-RN wins by 2+

33%

Imperatriz wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

America-RN 1+ goals

80%

America-RN 2+ goals

47%

America-RN 3+ goals

22%

Imperatriz 1+ goals

48%

Imperatriz 2+ goals

14%

Imperatriz 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

America-RN (draw refunded)

80%

Imperatriz (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America-RN at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.50 · 66 matches

Imperatriz away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America-RN attack 1.94 + Imperatriz defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.60

Imperatriz attack 0.81 + America-RN defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

America-RN scores more

60%

level

25%

Imperatriz scores more

15%

America-RN at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "America-RN will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

Lucas Oliveira

29'

Junior Chicão

45+5'

Danilo

54'

Reginaldo Júnior← Lucas Oliveira

59'

Luiz Fernando← Cascata

59'

Adauto← Kanu

82'

Wanderley← Eloir

88'

Rodney← Patrick

America-RN

Imperatriz

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Ney da Matta

54'▲Reginaldo Júnior←▼Lucas Oliveira

59'▲Luiz Fernando←▼Cascata

88'▲Rodney←▼Patrick

America-RN substitutes

JúniorFernandoRodneyBragaClaudioGercimarRibeiroGullithiLeozinhoLopeuSalaWandinho

Manager: Marcinho Guerreiro

59'▲Adauto←▼Kanu

82'▲Wanderley←▼Eloir

Imperatriz substitutes

AdautoWanderleyHenriqueVitorLucasSousa