América RJ 0–1 Nova Iguaçu: Result & Stats

América RJ

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nova Iguaçu

Zavoli Daniel 69'

7/15/2026

Copa Rio · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

América RJ58%

×Draw25%

Nova Iguaçu16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

América RJExpected goals in this matchNova Iguaçu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.69

América RJ

1.56

Nova Iguaçu

0.69

América RJ creates 126% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

1.62

creates per match

0.83

0.54

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

América RJ

1.62

Nova Iguaçu

0.83

allows per match

América RJ

0.54

Nova Iguaçu

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

América RJ+0.00on par

Nova Iguaçu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

América RJ ↓

Nova Iguaçu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

América RJ or draw

84%

América RJ or Nova Iguaçu

75%

Draw or Nova Iguaçu

42%

Winning margin

América RJ wins by 2+

31%

Nova Iguaçu wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

América RJ 1+ goals

79%

América RJ 2+ goals

46%

América RJ 3+ goals

21%

Nova Iguaçu 1+ goals

50%

Nova Iguaçu 2+ goals

15%

Nova Iguaçu 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

América RJ (draw refunded)

78%

Nova Iguaçu (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

América RJ at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

Nova Iguaçu away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

América RJ attack 1.62 + Nova Iguaçu defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Nova Iguaçu attack 0.83 + América RJ defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

América RJ scores more

58%

level

25%

Nova Iguaçu scores more

16%

América RJ at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "América RJ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

50'

69'

Zavoli Daniel

72'

82'

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AméricaNova

Overview

47%Possession53%

2Total Shots3

6Corners3

Shots

2Total Shots3

0On Target1

2Off Target2

0Blocked0

Passing

47%Possession53%

Discipline

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0