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America Mineiro vs Pouso Alegre — Mineiro - 1 2020

America Mineiro
America Mineiro
FT
6 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Pouso Alegre
Pouso Alegre
1/25/2024Mineiro - 1Mineiro - 1 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Raimundo Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

America Mineiro60%
×Draw24%
Pouso Alegre16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America Mineiro
1.70
Pouso Alegre
0.75

America Mineiro creates 127% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 30 away

creates per match

America Mineiro
1.63
Pouso Alegre
0.80

allows per match

America Mineiro
0.70
Pouso Alegre
1.77

finishing

America Mineiro+0.00on par
Pouso Alegre+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America Mineiro ↓

Pouso Alegre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

America Mineiro or draw
84%
America Mineiro or Pouso Alegre
76%
Draw or Pouso Alegre
40%

Winning margin

America Mineiro wins by 2+
34%
Pouso Alegre wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

America Mineiro 1+ goals
82%
America Mineiro 2+ goals
51%
America Mineiro 3+ goals
24%
Pouso Alegre 1+ goals
53%
Pouso Alegre 2+ goals
17%
Pouso Alegre 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

America Mineiro (draw refunded)
79%
Pouso Alegre (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America Mineiro at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.70 · 40 matches

Pouso Alegre away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America Mineiro attack 1.63 + Pouso Alegre defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.70

Pouso Alegre attack 0.80 + America Mineiro defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

America Mineiro scores more
60%
level
24%
Pouso Alegre scores more
16%

America Mineiro at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "America Mineiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 1: America Mineiro 6–0 Pouso Alegre

America Mineiro beat Pouso Alegre 6-0 in Mineiro - 1 on January 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.