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America Mineiro vs Goias — Serie B 2026

America Mineiro
America Mineiro
Preview
21:30
Goias
Goias
7/26/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 20
Big match
37%
America Mineiro
model favours
37%26%37%

America Mineiro score first in only 33% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

America Mineiro37%
×Draw26%
Goias37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America Mineiro
1.33
Goias
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

America Mineiro
1.29
Goias
1.36

allows per match

America Mineiro
1.30
Goias
1.38

finishing

America Mineiro-0.12scores less
Goias-0.27scores less

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America Mineiro ↓

Goias →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

America Mineiro or draw
63%
America Mineiro or Goias
74%
Draw or Goias
63%

Winning margin

America Mineiro wins by 2+
17%
Goias wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

America Mineiro 1+ goals
74%
America Mineiro 2+ goals
38%
America Mineiro 3+ goals
15%
Goias 1+ goals
74%
Goias 2+ goals
38%
Goias 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

America Mineiro (draw refunded)
50%
Goias (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America Mineiro at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.30 · 12 matches

Goias away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.38 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America Mineiro attack 1.29 + Goias defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Goias attack 1.36 + America Mineiro defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

America Mineiro scores more
37%
level
26%
Goias scores more
37%

America Mineiro at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "America Mineiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 65% of Goias’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Goias score first in 60% of matches
  • America Mineiro sit 17, Goias 2 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
America Mineiro
Possession-dominant
Goias
Balanced
55%Possession52%
82%Pass accuracy80%
13.0Shots13.4
1.13xGBiggest gap1.38
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
America MineiroGoias

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

2
America Mineiro
2
Draws
5
Goias
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 44%
1–30–11–02–21–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Mineiro
LDDLL
Goias
WDWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

America Mineiro vs Goias — Match Preview

America Mineiro face Goias on July 26, 2026 in this Serie B fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.