America Mineiro 0–3 Fluminense: Result & Stats

America Mineiro

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Fluminense

Lelê 72'

John Kennedy 60'

G. Cano 52'

4/15/2023

Serie A · Round 1Estádio Raimundo Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

America Mineiro36%

×Draw28%

Fluminense35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America MineiroExpected goals in this matchFluminense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.14

America Mineiro

1.16

Fluminense

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 48 away

1.04

creates per match

0.99

1.28

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

America Mineiro

1.04

Fluminense

0.99

allows per match

America Mineiro

1.28

Fluminense

1.28

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

America Mineiro-0.04on par

Fluminense-0.05on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America Mineiro ↓

Fluminense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

America Mineiro or draw

65%

America Mineiro or Fluminense

72%

Draw or Fluminense

64%

Winning margin

America Mineiro wins by 2+

15%

Fluminense wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

America Mineiro 1+ goals

69%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

32%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

11%

Fluminense 1+ goals

68%

Fluminense 2+ goals

32%

Fluminense 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

51%

Fluminense (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America Mineiro at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.28 · 5 matches

Fluminense away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.28 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America Mineiro attack 1.04 + Fluminense defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.16

Fluminense attack 0.99 + America Mineiro defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

America Mineiro scores more

36%

level

28%

Fluminense scores more

35%

America Mineiro at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "America Mineiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

Lelê

Fluminense · F

8.2

Match Events

40'

41'

45+4'

45+1'

46'

Guga← Alexsander

46'

Lelê← Gabriel Pirani

48'

Nino Paraíba

52'

G. Cano↳ Samuel Xavier

60'

John Kennedy↳ Lelê

63'

Adyson← Everaldo

63'

Wellington Paulista← Henrique Almeida

63'

Ricardo Silva← Iago Maidana

69'

Matheusinho← Felipe Azevedo

72'

Lelê↳ PH Ganso

73'

Lucas Kal← E. Martínez

78'

Keno← G. Cano

79'

Thiago Santos← PH Ganso

79'

David Braz← Nino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaFluminense

Overview

46%Possession54%

17Total Shots15

1.07Expected Goals (xG)3.05

11Corners1

25Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots15

2On Target8

9Off Target3

6Blocked4

11Inside Box9

6Outside Box6

Passing

46%Possession54%

336Total Passes442

269Accurate Passes366

80%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

25Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3

Match Recap: America Mineiro vs Fluminense

Fluminense beat America Mineiro 3-0 in Serie A on April 15, 2023.

Goals: G. Cano (52'), John Kennedy (60'), Lelê (72').

Fluminense controlled possession (54%) and registered 15 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.

America Mineiro vs Fluminense — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: America Mineiro vs Fluminense