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America Mineiro vs Flamengo — Serie A 2026

America Mineiro
America Mineiro
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Flamengo
Flamengo
9/26/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 22Estádio Raimundo Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

America Mineiro31%
×Draw27%
Flamengo42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America Mineiro
1.15
Flamengo
1.37

Flamengo creates 19% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 161 away

creates per match

America Mineiro
1.14
Flamengo
1.62

allows per match

America Mineiro
1.11
Flamengo
1.15

finishing

America Mineiro+0.00on par
Flamengo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America Mineiro ↓

Flamengo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

America Mineiro or draw
58%
America Mineiro or Flamengo
73%
Draw or Flamengo
69%

Winning margin

America Mineiro wins by 2+
13%
Flamengo wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

America Mineiro 1+ goals
68%
America Mineiro 2+ goals
32%
America Mineiro 3+ goals
11%
Flamengo 1+ goals
75%
Flamengo 2+ goals
40%
Flamengo 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

America Mineiro (draw refunded)
43%
Flamengo (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America Mineiro at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.11 · 76 matches

Flamengo away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.15 · 161 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America Mineiro attack 1.14 + Flamengo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Flamengo attack 1.62 + America Mineiro defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

America Mineiro scores more
31%
level
27%
Flamengo scores more
42%

Flamengo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Flamengo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: America Mineiro vs Flamengo

America Mineiro and Flamengo drew 1-1 in Serie A on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.