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América Mineiro U20 vs Uberaba U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

América Mineiro U20
América Mineiro U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Uberaba U20
Uberaba U20
Unknown 39'
Jhonatan Lima 16'
Unknown 88'
8/30/2025Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · Championship Round - 2Centro de Treinamento Lanna Drumond

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

América Mineiro U2067%
×Draw19%
Uberaba U2013%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

América Mineiro U20
2.12
Uberaba U20
0.82

América Mineiro U20 creates 159% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 9 away

creates per match

América Mineiro U20
2.46
Uberaba U20
0.89

allows per match

América Mineiro U20
0.75
Uberaba U20
1.78

finishing

América Mineiro U20+0.00on par
Uberaba U20+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

América Mineiro U20 ↓

Uberaba U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

América Mineiro U20 or draw
87%
América Mineiro U20 or Uberaba U20
81%
Draw or Uberaba U20
33%

Winning margin

América Mineiro U20 wins by 2+
43%
Uberaba U20 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

América Mineiro U20 1+ goals
88%
América Mineiro U20 2+ goals
62%
América Mineiro U20 3+ goals
35%
Uberaba U20 1+ goals
56%
Uberaba U20 2+ goals
20%
Uberaba U20 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

América Mineiro U20 (draw refunded)
83%
Uberaba U20 (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

América Mineiro U20 at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

Uberaba U20 away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

América Mineiro U20 attack 2.46 + Uberaba U20 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.12

Uberaba U20 attack 0.89 + América Mineiro U20 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

América Mineiro U20 scores more
67%
level
19%
Uberaba U20 scores more
13%

América Mineiro U20 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "América Mineiro U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
Jhonatan Lima
39'
54'
88'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro U20: América Mineiro U20 2–1 Uberaba U20

América Mineiro U20 beat Uberaba U20 2-1 in Mineiro U20 on August 30, 2025.

Goals: Jhonatan Lima (16'), ? (39', 88').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Lanna Drumond in Contagem, Minas Gerais.