América Mineiro U20 5–0 Mamoré U20: Result & Stats

América Mineiro U20

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Mamoré U20

Basile 81'

Bernardo Daciolo 67'

Karlos 51'

J. Cesar 44'

H. Braga 33'

6/14/2025

Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 5Centro de Treinamento Lanna Drumond

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

América Mineiro U2092%

×Draw6%

Mamoré U202%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

América Mineiro U20Expected goals in this matchMamoré U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.53

0.38

América Mineiro U20

3.53

Mamoré U20

0.38

América Mineiro U20 creates 829% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 5 away

2.46

creates per match

0.00

0.75

allows per match

4.60

creates per match

América Mineiro U20

2.46

Mamoré U20

0.00

allows per match

América Mineiro U20

0.75

Mamoré U20

4.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

América Mineiro U20+0.00on par

Mamoré U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

América Mineiro U20 ↓

Mamoré U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–13%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–016%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–014%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (16%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

América Mineiro U20 or draw

98%

América Mineiro U20 or Mamoré U20

94%

Draw or Mamoré U20

8%

Winning margin

América Mineiro U20 wins by 2+

78%

Mamoré U20 wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

América Mineiro U20 1+ goals

97%

América Mineiro U20 2+ goals

86%

América Mineiro U20 3+ goals

66%

Mamoré U20 1+ goals

32%

Mamoré U20 2+ goals

6%

Mamoré U20 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

América Mineiro U20 (draw refunded)

98%

Mamoré U20 (draw refunded)

2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

América Mineiro U20 at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

Mamoré U20 away — creates 0.00, concedes 4.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

América Mineiro U20 attack 2.46 + Mamoré U20 defence 4.60 → ÷2 → 3.53

Mamoré U20 attack 0.00 + América Mineiro U20 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

América Mineiro U20 scores more

92%

level

6%

Mamoré U20 scores more

2%

América Mineiro U20 at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "América Mineiro U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

H. Braga

44'

J. Cesar

51'

Karlos

67'

Bernardo Daciolo

81'

Basile

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff