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América Mineiro U20 vs Contagem U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

América Mineiro U20
América Mineiro U20
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Contagem U20
Contagem U20
Paulinho 90+4'
Kaua Diniz 86'
7/5/2024Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio das Alterosas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

América Mineiro U2064%
×Draw22%
Contagem U2014%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

América Mineiro U20
1.85
Contagem U20
0.71

América Mineiro U20 creates 161% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 12 away

creates per match

América Mineiro U20
2.46
Contagem U20
0.67

allows per match

América Mineiro U20
0.75
Contagem U20
1.25

finishing

América Mineiro U20+0.00on par
Contagem U20+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

América Mineiro U20 ↓

Contagem U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

América Mineiro U20 or draw
86%
América Mineiro U20 or Contagem U20
78%
Draw or Contagem U20
36%

Winning margin

América Mineiro U20 wins by 2+
38%
Contagem U20 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

América Mineiro U20 1+ goals
84%
América Mineiro U20 2+ goals
55%
América Mineiro U20 3+ goals
28%
Contagem U20 1+ goals
51%
Contagem U20 2+ goals
16%
Contagem U20 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

América Mineiro U20 (draw refunded)
82%
Contagem U20 (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

América Mineiro U20 at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

Contagem U20 away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

América Mineiro U20 attack 2.46 + Contagem U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.85

Contagem U20 attack 0.67 + América Mineiro U20 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

América Mineiro U20 scores more
64%
level
22%
Contagem U20 scores more
14%

América Mineiro U20 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "América Mineiro U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

86'
Kaua Diniz
90+4'
Paulinho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

América Mineiro U20 2 – 0 Contagem U20

América Mineiro U20 beat Contagem U20 2-0 in Mineiro U20 on July 5, 2024.

Goals: Kaua Diniz (86'), Paulinho (90+4').

The match was played at Estádio das Alterosas in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.