America MG U17 2–2 Sao Paulo U17: Result & Stats

America MG U17

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sao Paulo U17

Jonatas 90'

A. Santana 39' (OG)

Angelo Candido 69'

G. Ribeiro 5'

5/14/2025

Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 1Arena Vera Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

America MG U1732%

×Draw25%

Sao Paulo U1743%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America MG U17Expected goals in this matchSao Paulo U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.50

America MG U17

1.25

Sao Paulo U17

1.50

Sao Paulo U17 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 17 away

1.21

creates per match

1.59

1.42

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

America MG U17

1.21

Sao Paulo U17

1.59

allows per match

America MG U17

1.42

Sao Paulo U17

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America MG U17+0.00on par

Sao Paulo U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America MG U17 ↓

Sao Paulo U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

America MG U17 or draw

57%

America MG U17 or Sao Paulo U17

75%

Draw or Sao Paulo U17

68%

Winning margin

America MG U17 wins by 2+

13%

Sao Paulo U17 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

America MG U17 1+ goals

71%

America MG U17 2+ goals

36%

America MG U17 3+ goals

13%

Sao Paulo U17 1+ goals

78%

Sao Paulo U17 2+ goals

44%

Sao Paulo U17 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

America MG U17 (draw refunded)

42%

Sao Paulo U17 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America MG U17 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Sao Paulo U17 away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America MG U17 attack 1.21 + Sao Paulo U17 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sao Paulo U17 attack 1.59 + America MG U17 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

America MG U17 scores more

32%

level

25%

Sao Paulo U17 scores more

43%

Sao Paulo U17 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sao Paulo U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

G. Ribeiro

39'

A. SantanaOwn goal

69'

Angelo Candido

90'

Jonatas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff