Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

America MG U17 vs Goias U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

America MG U17
America MG U17
FT
0 – 1
Goias U17
Goias U17
7/3/2024Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Group Stage - 1Arena Gregorão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

America MG U1769%
×Draw17%
Goias U1714%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America MG U17
2.60
Goias U17
1.11

America MG U17 creates 134% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 5 away

creates per match

America MG U17
1.21
Goias U17
0.80

allows per match

America MG U17
1.42
Goias U17
4.00

finishing

America MG U17+0.00on par
Goias U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 71Under: 2971%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America MG U17 ↓

Goias U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

America MG U17 or draw
86%
America MG U17 or Goias U17
83%
Draw or Goias U17
31%

Winning margin

America MG U17 wins by 2+
47%
Goias U17 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

America MG U17 1+ goals
92%
America MG U17 2+ goals
73%
America MG U17 3+ goals
47%
Goias U17 1+ goals
67%
Goias U17 2+ goals
30%
Goias U17 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

America MG U17 (draw refunded)
83%
Goias U17 (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America MG U17 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Goias U17 away — creates 0.80, concedes 4.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America MG U17 attack 1.21 + Goias U17 defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.60

Goias U17 attack 0.80 + America MG U17 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

America MG U17 scores more
69%
level
17%
Goias U17 scores more
14%

America MG U17 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "America MG U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U17: America MG U17 0–1 Goias U17

Goias U17 beat America MG U17 1-0 in Brasileiro U17 on July 3, 2024.

The match was played at Arena Gregorão in Contagem, Minas Gerais.