America MG U17 0–3 Flamengo RJ U17: Result & Stats

America MG U17

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Flamengo RJ U17

J. Vitor 42'

R. H. Tomaz da Silva 15'

V. Amaral 3'

7/30/2025

Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 12Arena Vera Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

America MG U1734%

×Draw25%

Flamengo RJ U1741%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America MG U17Expected goals in this matchFlamengo RJ U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.49

America MG U17

1.32

Flamengo RJ U17

1.49

Flamengo RJ U17 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

1.21

creates per match

1.56

1.42

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

America MG U17

1.21

Flamengo RJ U17

1.56

allows per match

America MG U17

1.42

Flamengo RJ U17

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America MG U17+0.00on par

Flamengo RJ U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America MG U17 ↓

Flamengo RJ U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

America MG U17 or draw

59%

America MG U17 or Flamengo RJ U17

75%

Draw or Flamengo RJ U17

66%

Winning margin

America MG U17 wins by 2+

15%

Flamengo RJ U17 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

America MG U17 1+ goals

73%

America MG U17 2+ goals

38%

America MG U17 3+ goals

15%

Flamengo RJ U17 1+ goals

77%

Flamengo RJ U17 2+ goals

44%

Flamengo RJ U17 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

America MG U17 (draw refunded)

45%

Flamengo RJ U17 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America MG U17 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Flamengo RJ U17 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America MG U17 attack 1.21 + Flamengo RJ U17 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.32

Flamengo RJ U17 attack 1.56 + America MG U17 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

America MG U17 scores more

34%

level

25%

Flamengo RJ U17 scores more

41%

Flamengo RJ U17 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Flamengo RJ U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

V. Amaral

15'

R. H. Tomaz da Silva

42'

J. Vitor

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff