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America MG U17 vs Cuiaba U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

America MG U17
America MG U17
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cuiaba U17
Cuiaba U17
7/17/2025Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Municipal Victor Andrade de Brito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

America MG U1755%
×Draw23%
Cuiaba U1722%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America MG U17
1.80
Cuiaba U17
1.04

America MG U17 creates 73% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 15 away

creates per match

America MG U17
1.21
Cuiaba U17
0.67

allows per match

America MG U17
1.42
Cuiaba U17
2.40

finishing

America MG U17+0.00on par
Cuiaba U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 54Under: 4654%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America MG U17 ↓

Cuiaba U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

America MG U17 or draw
78%
America MG U17 or Cuiaba U17
77%
Draw or Cuiaba U17
45%

Winning margin

America MG U17 wins by 2+
31%
Cuiaba U17 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

America MG U17 1+ goals
83%
America MG U17 2+ goals
54%
America MG U17 3+ goals
27%
Cuiaba U17 1+ goals
65%
Cuiaba U17 2+ goals
28%
Cuiaba U17 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

America MG U17 (draw refunded)
72%
Cuiaba U17 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America MG U17 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Cuiaba U17 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America MG U17 attack 1.21 + Cuiaba U17 defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.80

Cuiaba U17 attack 0.67 + America MG U17 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

America MG U17 scores more
55%
level
23%
Cuiaba U17 scores more
22%

America MG U17 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "America MG U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: America MG U17 vs Cuiaba U17

America MG U17 and Cuiaba U17 drew 0-0 in Brasileiro U17 on July 17, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Victor Andrade de Brito in Santa Luzia, Minas Gerais.