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America MG U17 vs Corinthians U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

America MG U17
America MG U17
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Corinthians U17
Corinthians U17
Paul 90+2'
Unknown 77', 37'
8/7/2024Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Group Stage - 6Arena Gregorão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

America MG U1734%
×Draw25%
Corinthians U1741%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America MG U17
1.35
Corinthians U17
1.52

Corinthians U17 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

creates per match

America MG U17
1.21
Corinthians U17
1.61

allows per match

America MG U17
1.42
Corinthians U17
1.50

finishing

America MG U17+0.00on par
Corinthians U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America MG U17 ↓

Corinthians U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

America MG U17 or draw
59%
America MG U17 or Corinthians U17
75%
Draw or Corinthians U17
66%

Winning margin

America MG U17 wins by 2+
15%
Corinthians U17 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

America MG U17 1+ goals
74%
America MG U17 2+ goals
39%
America MG U17 3+ goals
15%
Corinthians U17 1+ goals
78%
Corinthians U17 2+ goals
45%
Corinthians U17 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

America MG U17 (draw refunded)
45%
Corinthians U17 (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America MG U17 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Corinthians U17 away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America MG U17 attack 1.21 + Corinthians U17 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Corinthians U17 attack 1.61 + America MG U17 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

America MG U17 scores more
34%
level
25%
Corinthians U17 scores more
41%

Corinthians U17 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Corinthians U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
77'
90+2'
Paul

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: America MG U17 vs Corinthians U17

Corinthians U17 beat America MG U17 2-1 in Brasileiro U17 on August 7, 2024.

Goals: ? (37', 77'), Paul (90+2').

The match was played at Arena Gregorão in Contagem, Minas Gerais.