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America MG U17 vs Botafogo U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

America MG U17
America MG U17
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Botafogo U17
Botafogo U17
7/22/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

America MG U1746%
×Draw24%
Botafogo U1730%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America MG U17
1.73
Botafogo U17
1.36

America MG U17 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

creates per match

America MG U17
1.21
Botafogo U17
1.30

allows per match

America MG U17
1.42
Botafogo U17
2.25

finishing

America MG U17+0.00on par
Botafogo U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America MG U17 ↓

Botafogo U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

America MG U17 or draw
70%
America MG U17 or Botafogo U17
76%
Draw or Botafogo U17
54%

Winning margin

America MG U17 wins by 2+
25%
Botafogo U17 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

America MG U17 1+ goals
82%
America MG U17 2+ goals
52%
America MG U17 3+ goals
25%
Botafogo U17 1+ goals
74%
Botafogo U17 2+ goals
39%
Botafogo U17 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

America MG U17 (draw refunded)
60%
Botafogo U17 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America MG U17 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Botafogo U17 away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America MG U17 attack 1.21 + Botafogo U17 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.73

Botafogo U17 attack 1.30 + America MG U17 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

America MG U17 scores more
46%
level
24%
Botafogo U17 scores more
30%

America MG U17 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "America MG U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: America MG U17 vs Botafogo U17

America MG U17 and Botafogo U17 drew 0-0 in Brasileiro U17 on July 22, 2026.