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America MG U17 vs Atlético Mineiro U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

America MG U17
America MG U17
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Mineiro U17
Atlético Mineiro U17
Riquelme 63'
Caua 38'
8/13/2025Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 14Arena Vera Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

America MG U1737%
×Draw23%
Atlético Mineiro U1740%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America MG U17
1.58
Atlético Mineiro U17
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 21 away

creates per match

America MG U17
1.21
Atlético Mineiro U17
1.86

allows per match

America MG U17
1.42
Atlético Mineiro U17
1.95

finishing

America MG U17+0.00on par
Atlético Mineiro U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America MG U17 ↓

Atlético Mineiro U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

America MG U17 or draw
60%
America MG U17 or Atlético Mineiro U17
77%
Draw or Atlético Mineiro U17
63%

Winning margin

America MG U17 wins by 2+
18%
Atlético Mineiro U17 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

America MG U17 1+ goals
79%
America MG U17 2+ goals
47%
America MG U17 3+ goals
21%
Atlético Mineiro U17 1+ goals
81%
Atlético Mineiro U17 2+ goals
49%
Atlético Mineiro U17 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

America MG U17 (draw refunded)
48%
Atlético Mineiro U17 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America MG U17 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Atlético Mineiro U17 away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America MG U17 attack 1.21 + Atlético Mineiro U17 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.58

Atlético Mineiro U17 attack 1.86 + America MG U17 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

America MG U17 scores more
37%
level
23%
Atlético Mineiro U17 scores more
40%

Atlético Mineiro U17 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atlético Mineiro U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
Caua
63'
Riquelme

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U17: America MG U17 0–2 Atlético Mineiro U17

Atlético Mineiro U17 beat America MG U17 2-0 in Brasileiro U17 on August 13, 2025.

Goals: Caua (38'), Riquelme (63').

The match was played at Arena Vera Cruz in Betim, Minas Gerais.