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America de Quito vs Tecnico Universitario — Liga Pro 2018

America de Quito
America de Quito
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario
8/31/2019Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 24Estadio Olímpico Guillermo Albornoz (Cayambe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

America de Quito47%
×Draw28%
Tecnico Universitario25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Quito
1.36
Tecnico Universitario
0.90

America de Quito creates 51% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 129 away

creates per match

America de Quito
1.33
Tecnico Universitario
0.86

allows per match

America de Quito
0.93
Tecnico Universitario
1.40

finishing

America de Quito+0.00on par
Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Quito ↓

Tecnico Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

America de Quito or draw
75%
America de Quito or Tecnico Universitario
72%
Draw or Tecnico Universitario
53%

Winning margin

America de Quito wins by 2+
23%
Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

America de Quito 1+ goals
74%
America de Quito 2+ goals
39%
America de Quito 3+ goals
16%
Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals
59%
Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals
23%
Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

America de Quito (draw refunded)
66%
Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Quito at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Tecnico Universitario away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.40 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Quito attack 1.33 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Tecnico Universitario attack 0.86 + America de Quito defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

America de Quito scores more
47%
level
28%
Tecnico Universitario scores more
25%

America de Quito at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "America de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: America de Quito 2–0 Tecnico Universitario

America de Quito beat Tecnico Universitario 2-0 in Liga Pro on August 31, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Guillermo Albornoz (Cayambe).