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America de Quito vs Santa Rita — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

America de Quito
America de Quito
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Santa Rita
Santa Rita
C. Gentile 51'
J. Lugo 7'
W. Marret 18'
10/17/2020Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 12Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

America de Quito51%
×Draw28%
Santa Rita21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Quito
1.36
Santa Rita
0.76

America de Quito creates 79% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 49 away

creates per match

America de Quito
1.48
Santa Rita
0.69

allows per match

America de Quito
0.84
Santa Rita
1.24

finishing

America de Quito+0.00on par
Santa Rita+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Quito ↓

Santa Rita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

America de Quito or draw
79%
America de Quito or Santa Rita
72%
Draw or Santa Rita
49%

Winning margin

America de Quito wins by 2+
25%
Santa Rita wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

America de Quito 1+ goals
74%
America de Quito 2+ goals
39%
America de Quito 3+ goals
16%
Santa Rita 1+ goals
53%
Santa Rita 2+ goals
18%
Santa Rita 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

America de Quito (draw refunded)
71%
Santa Rita (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Quito at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.84 · 85 matches

Santa Rita away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.24 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Quito attack 1.48 + Santa Rita defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.36

Santa Rita attack 0.69 + America de Quito defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

America de Quito scores more
51%
level
28%
Santa Rita scores more
21%

America de Quito at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "America de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
J. Lugo
18'
W. Marret
51'
C. Gentile

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: America de Quito vs Santa Rita

America de Quito beat Santa Rita 2-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on October 17, 2020.

Goals: J. Lugo (7'), W. Marret (18'), C. Gentile (51').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.